Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 8
Mark Gallant
10/26/17
With six teams on a bye each of the following two weeks, our pickings are going to be on the slim side. You never want to bet on a game just for action, and you shouldn't force anything if you end up liking only a couple of games.
Interestingly enough, of the 13 games this week, six include favorites of at least six points, while one more is on the verge of joining the group.
For this week's system, we will be taking a look at a select group of these large underdogs.
Historically, 'dogs of six points or more have had the edge, according to Bet Labs Sports. Since 2003, they've covered at a 51.6 percent rate. Although this isn't quite good enough to be a profitable strategy on its own, it's a solid building block with which to begin.
Because there are six of these teams this week, we are going to want to narrow down our picks anyway. One way I like to do that is by looking only at teams off a huge loss.
When a team loses a game by 20 points or more, bettors and oddsmakers are going to sour on them and shade the line toward their opponent.
Add these two factors together, and your return on investment (ROI) looks very nice.
Why it works
This system works for a couple of reasons. The first is that public bettors like favorites, especially big ones. Favorites have received the majority of spread bets in more than 78 percent of games dating to 2003. However, teams favored by six points or more have received the majority of spread bets more than 88 percent of the time. As a general rule of thumb, you want to be doing the opposite of what the public is doing, seeing as they generally lose money in the long (or short) run.
Something similar occurs for teams coming off a big loss. Bettors have a short memory and for the most part are a "what have you done for me lately" type of crew. They're not going to want to bet on a team that was just blown out because they assume that performance will carry over to the next game.
Add these two factors together, and you get a perfect storm for contrarian betting. Of the 264 teams that have fit our system since 2003, only nine have received more than 50 percent of bets.
Week 8 system matches
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Although they sit in the basement of the league at 0-7, the 49ers rattled off a rather impressive streak of five straight losses of three points or fewer. At 4-3 against the spread, they've been one of the better teams to bet on this season. This was not the case this past week, though, as their streak of close losses ended with a 40-10 shellacking at the hands of Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Eagles just moved to a league best 6-1 record and are sure to be a popular team going forward. This line had been at 10.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook but moved to 12.5 after offshore books opened the line between 12 and 13.
The Pick: 49ers +12.5
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
With Andrew Luck out, the Colts are trying to make the best out of a bad situation with Jacoby Brissett under center. It's looking like that might end up lasting the entire season, with recent reports on Luck looking ominous. Brissett and the Colts' offense have been hit-or-miss this season, and this past week was certainly a miss, as they were shut out 27-0 by the Jaguars. At 2-4, the Bengals haven't exactly lived up to expectations themselves. This game is currently the least lopsided of the three matches, with Cincy receiving 53 percent of spread bets, according to Sports Insights. I expect this to be the case by week's end, too, as I can't imagine many bettors wanting to lay 10 points on Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
The Pick: Colts +10
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos were looking like one of the league's better teams just a few weeks into the season, but a switch has been flipped these past couple of weeks ... and not in a good way. Two weeks ago, the Broncos were on the wrong end of a double-digit upset at the hands of the injury-riddled Giants. This past week, they were shut out 21-0 against the Chargers. With bettors expecting the once-undefeated Chiefs to bounce back after two straight losses, 80 percent of early spread bets are coming in on Kansas City. You're going to want to go against the grain and take the struggling Broncos.
The Pick: Broncos +7.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Mark Gallant
10/26/17
With six teams on a bye each of the following two weeks, our pickings are going to be on the slim side. You never want to bet on a game just for action, and you shouldn't force anything if you end up liking only a couple of games.
Interestingly enough, of the 13 games this week, six include favorites of at least six points, while one more is on the verge of joining the group.
For this week's system, we will be taking a look at a select group of these large underdogs.
Historically, 'dogs of six points or more have had the edge, according to Bet Labs Sports. Since 2003, they've covered at a 51.6 percent rate. Although this isn't quite good enough to be a profitable strategy on its own, it's a solid building block with which to begin.
Because there are six of these teams this week, we are going to want to narrow down our picks anyway. One way I like to do that is by looking only at teams off a huge loss.
When a team loses a game by 20 points or more, bettors and oddsmakers are going to sour on them and shade the line toward their opponent.
Add these two factors together, and your return on investment (ROI) looks very nice.
Why it works
This system works for a couple of reasons. The first is that public bettors like favorites, especially big ones. Favorites have received the majority of spread bets in more than 78 percent of games dating to 2003. However, teams favored by six points or more have received the majority of spread bets more than 88 percent of the time. As a general rule of thumb, you want to be doing the opposite of what the public is doing, seeing as they generally lose money in the long (or short) run.
Something similar occurs for teams coming off a big loss. Bettors have a short memory and for the most part are a "what have you done for me lately" type of crew. They're not going to want to bet on a team that was just blown out because they assume that performance will carry over to the next game.
Add these two factors together, and you get a perfect storm for contrarian betting. Of the 264 teams that have fit our system since 2003, only nine have received more than 50 percent of bets.
Week 8 system matches
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Although they sit in the basement of the league at 0-7, the 49ers rattled off a rather impressive streak of five straight losses of three points or fewer. At 4-3 against the spread, they've been one of the better teams to bet on this season. This was not the case this past week, though, as their streak of close losses ended with a 40-10 shellacking at the hands of Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Eagles just moved to a league best 6-1 record and are sure to be a popular team going forward. This line had been at 10.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook but moved to 12.5 after offshore books opened the line between 12 and 13.
The Pick: 49ers +12.5
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
With Andrew Luck out, the Colts are trying to make the best out of a bad situation with Jacoby Brissett under center. It's looking like that might end up lasting the entire season, with recent reports on Luck looking ominous. Brissett and the Colts' offense have been hit-or-miss this season, and this past week was certainly a miss, as they were shut out 27-0 by the Jaguars. At 2-4, the Bengals haven't exactly lived up to expectations themselves. This game is currently the least lopsided of the three matches, with Cincy receiving 53 percent of spread bets, according to Sports Insights. I expect this to be the case by week's end, too, as I can't imagine many bettors wanting to lay 10 points on Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
The Pick: Colts +10
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos were looking like one of the league's better teams just a few weeks into the season, but a switch has been flipped these past couple of weeks ... and not in a good way. Two weeks ago, the Broncos were on the wrong end of a double-digit upset at the hands of the injury-riddled Giants. This past week, they were shut out 21-0 against the Chargers. With bettors expecting the once-undefeated Chiefs to bounce back after two straight losses, 80 percent of early spread bets are coming in on Kansas City. You're going to want to go against the grain and take the struggling Broncos.
The Pick: Broncos +7.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
